Capitulation

Mass selling panic at cycle bottom - often a local bottom signal.

Capitulation = the moment sellers give up - selling at a loss after months of holding, no hope of recovery. Signs: negative SOPR, NUPL <-0.15, media panic, mass liquidations. BTC bottoms: March 2020 (3.8k, covid), November 2022 (15.5k, FTX), September 2019. Buying capitulation = best returns in the cycle.

In plain words

The moment the last believers sell - they can't take another drop psychologically. Ironically usually the bottom.

Example

Nov 2022 (FTX crash): BTC -25% in 2 days to 15.5k, media panic, NUPL -0.15. Cycle bottom - buyers got +500% in 2 years.

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