MVRV Ratio
Market value to realized value (avg purchase price of all coins).
MVRV = Market Cap / Realized Cap. Shows if avg investor is in profit/loss. BTC zones: <1 underwater (bear bottom), 1-2.5 healthy growth, 2.5-3.5 caution, >3.5 euphoria/distribution. 2017 peak: 5.8. 2021: 4.0. 2024: 3.2.
In plain words
Tells you if the average investor is in profit or loss. Value 1 = average buy price equals current price. Above 3.5 historically means most are deep in profit and start selling. Typical cycle top. Below 1 = average investor underwater. Usually the bear bottom.
Example
Nov 2022 (BTC 15.5k): MVRV 0.78 (underwater) = bottom. Mar 2024 (73k): MVRV 2.7 = caution. Nov 2024 (90k): MVRV 2.5. Cycle top forecast: MVRV 3.0-3.5 = BTC ~$120-150k.
Also known as: MVRV, MVRV ratio