Recession
Two consecutive quarters of GDP decline - period of weak economy.
Technical recession: two quarters of GDP drop. Actual recession declared by NBER (US) using employment, income, production data. Historically crypto behaves as risk-on in recession: falls initially (panic), then rises as Fed eases (2008 didn't have BTC, 2020 BTC -50% in March, +700% by year-end). 2025-26 recession widely expected in US - could be the best year for BTC.
In plain words
The economy shrinks for 6+ months in a row - people lose jobs, businesses fail. Crypto initially falls with stocks, but when central bank starts saving the economy - BTC explodes.
Example
March 2020 (covid recession): BTC -50% to 3.8k USD in a week. Dec 2020: 28k USD = +650% from bottom.