Stock-to-Flow (S2F)
Scarcity valuation model: existing stock to annual production ratio.
S2F = Stock / Flow. Gold S2F ~60. BTC post-2024 halving: ~120 (rarest asset). PlanB model (2019) predicted BTC peak $100k+ for 2020-21 (actual 69k = 'miss'). Criticized: speculative, ignores demand, failed 2021. But illustrates: BTC scarcer halving by halving = long-term up.
In plain words
A model that values scarce assets: divides existing supply by new units produced per year. Gold S2F ~60. BTC after the 2024 halving is ~120, mathematically rarer than gold. The model illustrates that with each halving BTC gets scarcer, so long-term price rises.
Example
BTC S2F: 2012=8, 2016=25, 2020=56, 2024=120. Gold=60, Silver=22. PlanB suggested: post-2020 halving $100k, post-2024 $500k. Actual 2021 ATH 69k, 2024-25 $100k+. S2F directional, not precise.
Also known as: S2F, stock to flow