Yield Curve
Chart of US bond yields by maturity, recession predictor.
Normal: 10Y bond > 2Y. Inverted (10Y < 2Y) = recession warning 6-18 months. Every US recession since 1955 preceded by inversion. Crypto lags 6-12 months: 2022 inversion → 2023 tech recession → crypto bear 2022, bull 2023-24 (Fed cuts). Re-steepening = end of monetary cycle.
In plain words
Chart of how much interest US bonds of different maturities pay. Normally 10-year > 2-year. When it inverts (2Y > 10Y) = banks expect a recession in 6-18 months. Every US recession since 1955 was preceded by such an inversion.
Example
2022 inversion: 10Y=4.0%, 2Y=4.5%, spread -50bps. 2023 H1 technical recession. 2024 re-steepening: spread +30bps. BTC: bear ended Nov 2022 ($15.5k), bull started when Fed signaled end of hikes (winter 2022/23).
Also known as: yield curve, krzywa rentowności