Bitcoin cycle repeat chart: accumulation after cooldown, report for October 7-13, 2026

· CryptoPulsar AI

The Bitcoin cycle indicator is 31.7 out of 100 points and has been moving in the accumulation zone for 15 weeks. In this report we explain how to read its components, why the price found itself in the lower part of the weekly band, and which derivatives and macro data are worth comparing with this result.

Key points

  • BTC cycle score: 31.7/100, accumulation phase, historical reading from October 12, 2026.
  • Bitcoin: 82,478.00 USD, 7d change -3.8%, 30d +6.9%, from ATH -34.6%.
  • Fear & Greed Index: 69 (Greed), 8 points more than a day earlier; RSI 35.8, MACD D1 bearish.
  • BTC dominance according to the latest reading: 57.6%; ETH 7d -8.3%, SOL 7d -11.3%.
  • Headline: spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded an outflow of 1.22 billion USD in a single week.

Numbers of the week

  • BTC: 82478.0 USD, 7d -3.8%, 30d +6.9%
  • ETH: 2480.94 USD, 7d -8.3%, 30d -1.3%
  • SOL: 106.74 USD, 7d -11.3%, 30d +5.6%
  • BNB: 741.28 USD, 7d -5.9%, 30d +2.1%
  • XRP: 1.35 USD, 7d -10.3%, 30d -1.0%

Stocks, dollar and gold (7 days)

  • S&P 500: 7807.24, 7d +0.4%
  • Nasdaq 100: 30664.697, 7d -1.3%
  • CBOE Volatility Index: 15.21, 7d -2.0%
  • US Dollar Index: 102.572, 7d +0.4%
  • US 10Y Treasury Yield: 5.24, 7d -1.3%
  • Gold (XAU/USD): 4172.6001, 7d -0.1%

Where we are in the Bitcoin cycle

The BTC cycle score on October 12, 2026 is 31.7 points out of 100. The scale divides the market into five phases: below 25 bear market, 25 to 45 accumulation, 45 to 65 growth, 65 to 85 distribution, from 85 euphoria. Therefore 31.7 places Bitcoin in the accumulation phase, closer to the lower half of that range.

The accumulation phase is not a signal to take a position nor a forecast of a bottom. It is a description of a state in which, after an earlier cooling, the price stabilizes, leverage is gradually reduced, and some network indicators stop being as stretched as in euphoria. For a cycle observer, what matters more is how the individual components of the score behave relative to each other, not the single reading itself.

Cycle score and its components

The score is not a simple average of all points. Each layer has its own weight: long term 30%, short term 30%, medium term 40%. In the long term layer, a mature post halving phase is visible, with a strong trend signal and one signal favoring valuation. The short term is cooler, mainly due to technicals. The medium term is the most constructive.

The score components can be grouped as follows.

  • Long term layer: halving above 24 months is 0 points, EMA 50/200 on the daily close golden cross +3 points, distance from ATH -33.7% +1 point, price momentum 7d -3.3% and 30d +8.4% +1 point.
  • Short term layer: RSI 35.8 +3 points, MACD D1 bearish -3 points, EMA 9/21 bearish -2 points, Fear & Greed 69 -1 point, funding rate 0.002768 +1 point.
  • Medium term layer: NVT 34.5 +2 points, normalized MVRV 0.03 +3 points with raw MVRV 1.451, developer activity 108 +3 points, social volume 1651 +3 points, exchange supply 13.4% +1 point.

Bitcoin price and volatility

At the time of the reading, Bitcoin costs 82,478.00 USD. Over 24 hours it loses 1.3%, over 7 days 3.8%, but over 30 days it remains 6.9% above the level from a month ago. This means that the weekly pullback did not erase the entire move of recent weeks, but brought the price closer to the lower boundary of the local range.

The 24 h band is 82,291.00 to 84,231.00 USD, and the price is at 9.64% of that band. The 7 day band is 80,487.00 to 86,610.00 USD. The distance from ATH in cycle terms is -33.7%, and in the freshest market reading -34.6%. Bitcoin 24 h volume is 26.5 billion USD. The price correlates most strongly with Nasdaq 100, coefficient 0.70, and with S&P 500, coefficient 0.60. This shows that Bitcoin volatility is currently tied to equity market sentiment more than to the dollar or gold.

Sentiment and derivatives versus cycle phase

Fear & Greed is 69, that is Greed, and is 8 points higher than on October 11. This shows that retail sentiment is fairly optimistic, despite the weekly price decline and despite the cycle score being in the accumulation zone. The cycle indicator is a composite of many components, so high sentiment alone is not enough to change the phase.

In derivatives, a slight cooling of positions is visible. BTC open interest is 7.71 billion USD with a change of -0.5% over 24 h. The BTC funding rate on Binance is 0.0085%, and the long to short ratio is 1.47, that is a bull advantage, but not extreme. In the ETH market, open interest is 5.60 billion USD and fell by 4.4%, with a long to short ratio of 2.85. Such a high share of long positions in ETH means that on another downward impulse some positions are forcibly closed.

In the background, there are 17 whale transactions in 24 h with a volume of 897 million USD and exchange inflows of 360 million USD. This is positioning context, not an investment signal.

How the cycle score changed in recent months

The last 15 weeks show that the indicator neither entered a bear market below 25, nor approached a growth phase above 45. The range of readings is 26.3 from August 24 and 36.4 from July 27. The September rebound to 34.8 from September 21 was interrupted and by October 12 the indicator slid to 31.7.

Such a history is important, because a single reading can be sensitive to fast signals, especially MACD and EMA 9/21. Only several weeks of staying around the lower half of the accumulation band shows that the market is still absorbing supply and does not yet have an advantage of signals typical of a fresh uptrend. Observers should watch whether subsequent readings approach 45, or return to around 26.

Altcoins and dominance in this phase

The most recent BTC dominance reading is 57.6%. This means that capital rather stays with Bitcoin, and altcoins feel weekly pressure more strongly. Ethereum loses 8.3% in 7 days, Solana 11.3%, XRP 10.3%, BNB 5.9%. Among the larger gains there are narrow stories: BTW +37.7%, BDX +19.2%, STX +13.3%. Among the declines PUMP -21.8%, UNI -21.4%, VVV -19.9%, ENA -17.1%, MNT -15.5%.

Such a setup, large declines of liquid assets and isolated gains of lower liquidity tokens, is consistent with an accumulation phase in which risk appetite does not spread widely. In addition, headlines speak of a 1.22 billion USD outflow from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in a single week, which strengthens pressure on altcoins.

Economic background versus the cycle

The stock market behaves calmly, but unevenly. The S&P 500 is 7807.24, up 0.4% week over week, the Nasdaq 100 is 30664.70, down 1.3% week over week. VIX is 15.21, down 2.0% week over week. The dollar DXY is 102.57, up 0.4% week over week. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries is 5.24, down 1.3% week over week. Gold is 4172.60 USD, down 0.1% week over week.

BTC correlations over the last 30 days show: Nasdaq 0.70, S&P 500 0.60, 10Y yields -0.21, VIX -0.19, dollar 0.04, gold 0.08. This means that Bitcoin statistically behaves over the last 30 days closer to technology stocks than to gold or the dollar.

Headlines focus on CPI and FOMC data, as well as on the ETF outflow. According to reports, spot BTC and ETH ETFs lost 1.22 billion USD in a week. In the background there is also regulatory news: the SEC opens the door to 3x funds on Bitcoin and Ethereum, Thailand is to allow ETFs from October 16, and ESMA orders a halt to services for unstable stablecoins incompatible with MiCA. This type of information can change the structure of demand and supply, but the headlines alone do not determine the market direction.

Conclusions

  • The score of 31.7 combines a constructive medium-term layer, e.g. MVRV normalized 0.03 and NVT 34.5, with cool short-term technicals, e.g. bearish MACD and bearish EMA 9/21. Therefore the cycle remains in accumulation, but without the advantage of signals typical of a fresh uptrend.
  • Fear & Greed 69 contrasts with the price at 9.64% of the 24 h lower band and the score of 31.7. This shows that social media sentiment is sometimes delayed relative to technicals, and sentiment alone is not enough to change the phase.
  • BTC open interest -0.5% with L/S 1.47 is a slight cooling, but ETH L/S 2.85 and OI -4.4% signal that leverage was heavily accumulated in the second asset. Combined with headlines about long position liquidations since October 8, the picture is rather defensive.
  • BTC correlation with NDX 0.70 and S&P 0.60, with gold at 0.08 and DXY at 0.04, indicates that the current macro impulse passes through equities. Therefore CPI and FOMC data may matter more for the cycle than local changes in funding.
  • The score history since July keeps it in the 26.3 to 36.4 band. This is not euphoria, but it is not a bear market either. Prolonged accumulation means that the market is still absorbing supply, and observers should watch whether subsequent readings approach 45 or return to around 25.

Scenarios

  • Sideways, cautious market: The cycle score stays in the 25 to 45 range, MACD D1 remains bearish, and BTC open interest does not rise sharply despite positive funding rates. The market continues to carry out the accumulation phase, limiting volatility around the current band. Large price jumps may be isolated, and capital remains selective.
  • Attempt to move toward the growth phase: The indicator approaches 45, MACD shifts into a bullish structure, EMA 9/21 returns to a bull alignment, and ETF outflows give way to inflows. More demand signals could shift the cycle from accumulation toward the growth phase. This does not mean an automatic breakout, but it changes the interpretation of most observers.
  • Deeper cooling: The score falls below 25, RSI approaches 30, MVRV normalized enters negative levels, and leverage on ETH continues to rise. The market would find itself in a bear phase according to the scale. Such a state would favor further risk reduction and a longer process of rebuilding demand.

What to watch next week

In the coming weeks, it is worth watching primarily RSI, MACD and EMA 9/21, because they can change the cycle score fastest. The medium-term layer has the greatest weight at 40%, so MVRV, NVT, developer activity and exchange supply also matter. Pay special attention to whether BTC Binance funding 0.0085% and open interest 7.71 billion USD start to rise, and whether ETF outflows stop. With correlation to Nasdaq at 0.70, CPI and FOMC data may become a catalyst for a change in sentiment. In the current setup, observing the accumulation phase means tracking whether the indicator approaches 45 or returns to the bottom of the 26.3 range.

Risks to watch

  • Risk of a liquidation cascade, especially on ETH, where L/S Ratio 2.85 and OI change -4.4% show a stretched long position.
  • Risk of another ETF outflow, after reports of 1.22 billion USD in weekly outflows, which could entrench supply pressure.
  • Macro risk: volatility after CPI or FOMC data, with 10Y yield at 5.24 and BTC correlation with NDX at 0.70.
  • Regulatory risk: reports about ESMA and MiCA, as well as possible new SEC rules for leveraged funds, could quickly change access to products.

Frequently asked questions

What exactly does the accumulation phase mean on the cycle scale?

It is the range from 25 to 45 points, in which after an earlier decline the price stabilizes, supply is absorbed, and leverage is sometimes cooled. This is not a recommendation, only a description of the market state based on price, network and sentiment indicators.

Why is a score of 31.7 accumulation, when Fear & Greed shows 69 Greed?

The cycle indicator combines more layers, including technicals and on-chain data. Fear & Greed is only one short-term component. High sentiment can occur when the price corrects after a rise, while trend indicators are still cooled.

Can the cycle score identify a top or a bottom?

No. The phase scale organizes the market state, but it does not provide price levels or turning points. That is why the report describes the phase and structure, and does not predict what price Bitcoin will reach.

How to read the fact that some indicators are bearish and some are bullish?

The cycle is the result of three horizons. Short-term technicals, such as MACD, react quickly to declines. Medium-term indicators, such as NVT and MVRV, change signal more slowly. The divergence is information that the market is going through a transitional stage.

What do the derivatives mean: open interest and long/short ratio?

Open interest is the open number of contracts, it shows the capital committed to positions. The long/short ratio tells what part of positions bets on a rise and what part on a fall. A high long ratio can mean crowding on one side and the risk of liquidations during a price move.

Why is there no Bitcoin price forecast in the report?

Price forecasts are not needed to describe the cycle phase. The analysis focuses on the state of the indicators and their mutual relations, because that helps understand the risk environment, without promises of profit.

pl | en | uk