Altcoin season or neutral rotation? Report 14-20.10.2026

· CryptoPulsar AI

The CryptoPulsar AI altcoin season index stands at 60.5 points and remains neutral, although the median altcoin gains 27.6% over 90 days versus 23.8% for BTC. The report analyzes leaders, laggards, BTC dominance, derivatives and capital flows to show whether the market is actually entering an altcoin season.

Key points

  • Altcoin season index: 60.5 points, neutral state; the altseason threshold is 75.0 points, the Bitcoin season threshold is 25.0 points.
  • BTC 82,010.0 USD, 7d change -1.3%; ETH 2,406.4 USD, -4.7%; SOL 105.1 USD, -3.5%; XRP 1.3 USD, -4.7%.
  • Median altcoin over 90 days: +27.6%, BTC +23.8%, a difference of 3.8 percentage points in favor of altcoins.
  • BTC dominance: 60.2% in the week's data and 58.1% in the latest reading; ETH 10.7%.
  • 90-day leaders: BTW +2806.5%, QNT +203.6%, NEAR +154.6%; laggards: RAIN -41.3%, CC -17.3%, GRAM -11.7%.

Numbers of the week

  • BTC: 82010.0 USD, 7d -1.3%, 30d +1.1%
  • ETH: 2406.36 USD, 7d -4.7%, 30d -8.9%
  • SOL: 105.05 USD, 7d -3.5%, 30d -5.8%
  • BNB: 730.65 USD, 7d -2.3%, 30d -4.2%
  • XRP: 1.3 USD, 7d -4.7%, 30d -8.8%

Stocks, dollar and gold (7 days)

  • S&P 500: 7690.73, 7d -1.5%
  • Nasdaq 100: 29529.344, 7d -3.7%
  • CBOE Volatility Index: 18.44, 7d +21.2%
  • US Dollar Index: 101.973, 7d -0.6%
  • US 10Y Treasury Yield: 5.136, 7d -2.0%
  • Gold (XAU/USD): 4138.7002, 7d -1.0%

Is the altcoin season underway

The CryptoPulsar AI altcoin season index on 19.10.2026 stands at 60.5 points and is in a neutral state. This means the market does not meet the definition of an altcoin season, because that requires a score of at least 75.0 points, but it is also not in a bitcoin season, which would begin at a score of at most 25.0 points.

At first glance, the picture of the week does not look like a broad altcoin season. Bitcoin lost 1.3% over 7 days, but the major altcoins performed worse: ETH fell by 4.7%, SOL by 3.5%, and XRP by 4.7%. At the same time, however, the 90-day index shows something different: the median altcoin from a sample of 38 tokens gained 27.6%, while BTC gained 23.8%. This means the median altcoin outperformed by 3.8 percentage points, but that is too small for the index to leave the neutral zone.

The market therefore looks like a rotation phase rather than an unambiguous altcoin season. Some altcoins can rise strongly, but it is not a broad, even phenomenon. The major assets, especially ETH, do not confirm an advantage over BTC on a weekly basis.

Altcoin season index: how to read it

The index measures the percentage of altcoins in the sample that performed better than Bitcoin over 90 days. The higher the value, the more altcoins outperform BTC. Values above 75.0 points mean an altcoin season, values below 25.0 points mean a bitcoin season, and between them is the neutral state.

In this reading, the sample counts 38 tokens out of a universe of 49, 11 were omitted, and the lookback is 90 days. The result of 60.5 points should be understood as follows: roughly three fifths of the observed altcoins are doing better than BTC, but the scale of this advantage is not broad enough to trigger the altseason mode used by our model.

In practice, the index does not show whether the whole market is rising, only whether altcoins are beating BTC. During market-wide declines, defensive rotation is possible, and during rises, aggressive rotation. The current reading of 60.5 points means a slight advantage for altcoins over a 90-day horizon, but without confirmation in the short term.

Bitcoin versus altcoins in numbers

Bitcoin on 19.10 was quoted at 82,010.0 USD, which means a decline of 1.3% over 7 days and a rise of 1.1% over 30 days. BTC market capitalization was 1,648.3 billion USD. Ethereum cost 2,406.4 USD, lost 4.7% over a week and 8.9% over 30 days, with a market capitalization of 293.9 billion USD.

Solana fell 3.5% over 7 days, to 105.1 USD, and 5.8% over 30 days. BNB declined 2.3% over a week, to 730.7 USD, and 4.2% over 30 days. XRP was priced at 1.3 USD after a decline of 4.7% over a week and 8.8% over 30 days.

These numbers show that in the short and medium term, Bitcoin is relatively stronger than the largest altcoins. An altcoin season in the classic sense is the moment when the market gains momentum from smaller assets and when the major altcoins outperform BTC. This is not visible in the weekly data, declines dominate, and BTC loses the least.

Leaders and laggards

Over the 90-day horizon, the index leaders are: Bitway (BTW) with a return of 2806.5%, Quant (QNT) with 203.6%, NEAR Protocol with 154.6%, Pump.fun with 122.4%, and Ethena (ENA) with 120.3%. In percentage points, the advantage over BTC is respectively 2782.6 pp, 179.8 pp, 130.8 pp, 98.6 pp, and 96.4 pp.

At the other extreme over 90 days were: Rain with a loss of 41.3% and a result 65.1 pp worse than BTC, Canton with a loss of 17.3% and 41.1 pp worse, Gram with a loss of 11.7% and 35.5 pp worse, Stellar with a loss of 7.4% and 31.3 pp worse, and LEO Token with a loss of 7.2% and 31.0 pp worse.

On a weekly basis, the biggest gainers were Akedo 24.9%, Bitway 21.7%, Pearl 20.8%, Monero 11.5%, and Injective 11.2%. The largest declines were recorded by MemeCore -23.3%, Stacks -19.2%, Lighter -16.2%, Quant -15.8%, and Rain -15.4%. It is worth noting that Quant is simultaneously one of the strongest tokens over the 90-day horizon and one of the weakest over the week, which shows the volatility and rotational nature of the market.

BTC dominance and liquidity

BTC dominance in the week of 19.10 is 60.2%, and ETH dominance is 10.7%. In the most recent contextual reading, a value of 58.1% for BTC appears along with a total market capitalization of 2,836.3 billion USD. The difference between the readings reminds us that dominance changes not only through BTC price movement but also through changes in altcoin capitalization and the timing of measurement.

With dominance around 58 to 60%, BTC still plays the role of a liquidity anchor. Such a level rarely accompanies a mature altcoin season, because that usually involves a clear decline in BTC dominance as capital flows more broadly into ETH, SOL and smaller tokens. However, current liquidity data do not show an unambiguous breakthrough.

In derivatives there is a slight revival: BTC open interest rose by 3.0% to 7,803.3 million USD, and ETH OI rose by 3.1% to 5,482.1 million USD. BTC and ETH funding is low, 0.0096% and 0.0074%, and on Binance contracts respectively 0.0100% and 0.0062%. This suggests that positions are not extremely overheated, but the Long/Short ratio for ETH is high at 3.02, with long positions accounting for 75.1%.

The high share of long positions on ETH combined with a price decline of 4.7% over the week increases the market's sensitivity to a correction or a leverage squeeze. The 24h exchange inflow was 1,300.5 million USD, and the outflow was 665.6 million USD, which gives a positive difference and shows that over a one day horizon more assets flowed onto exchanges than flowed out. This is a liquidity observation, not a directional signal.

Index history in recent weeks

The index history of recent weeks shows large fluctuations. In early August the index was 64.9 points, then it fell to 31.6 points at the end of August. In September it stayed low, at 34.2 points in two readings, and at the end of the month it jumped to 65.8 points. In October it fluctuated from 53.8 points to 60.5 points.

From 3.10 the index rose from 53.8 points to 57.9 points on 10.10, then remained at 57.9 points on 17.10 and rose to 60.5 points on 19.10. This is a slight improvement, but still in the neutral zone. Throughout the period since August the index never exceeded the 75.0 point threshold and only once approached 66 points, which highlights that altcoin rotation is selective.

The Fear & Greed change over one day from 53 to 59 points accompanies a slight improvement in sentiment. However, the BTC cycle indicator at 33.0/100 and the accumulation phase suggest that the market is not yet in a broad market euphoria phase. In such an environment the altcoin season index may oscillate around 50 to 60 points without a clear resolution.

What would have to change

For the index to enter the altcoin season zone above 75.0 points, a more lasting move would have to appear in which the median altcoin clearly outperforms BTC for several weeks. A one off spike of individual tokens, such as BTW, is not enough, because the index looks at the breadth of a sample of 38 tokens.

Confirmation of rotation would be an increase in the share of ETH and other large altcoins in capitalization while BTC dominance declines toward lower levels. It would also be important for the weekly returns of ETH, SOL and XRP to rise above BTC's result, because currently all major altcoins outside BTC are under pressure.

On the other hand, a decline of the index below 45.0 points, and then toward 25.0 points, would mean a return to an environment dominated by BTC. We would then observe stronger BTC behavior amid altcoin weakness and further outflows from Ether ETFs, as reported in the headlines. Added to this is macro risk, such as the chance of a rate hike after the CPI reading, which may reinforce defensive capital behavior.

Conclusions

  • An index of 60.5 points combined with weekly declines in ETH of 4.7%, SOL of 3.5% and XRP of 4.7% while BTC fell only 1.3% shows that there is no broad altcoin season, but rather selective rotation.
  • The altcoin median outperformance over BTC over 90 days, 27.6% versus 23.8%, exists but is too small for the market to cross the 75.0 point threshold, which confirms the neutral character of the current phase.
  • The extreme BTW result of +2806.5% over 90 days did not pull the index toward altseason because the breadth of the sample is weak, and on a 24h basis BTW is losing 16.7% after a weekly gain of 21.7%.
  • BTC dominance at 60.2% for the week, and 58.1% in the most recent reading, plus a total capitalization of 2,836.3 billion USD indicate that BTC still holds its position as the liquidity anchor, which makes rapid expansion of altcoins difficult.
  • Open positions on ETH are rising by 3.1%, and the Long/Short ratio of 3.02 with a negative weekly ETH rate creates a fragile leverage structure, which may favor rapid corrections and rotations instead of a stable altcoin season.

Scenarios

  • Neutral rotation: The index stays between 45.0 and 75.0 points, BTC dominance around 58 to 60%, funding is low, and OI grows moderately. The market remains undecided, capital picks selected narratives instead of a broad altcoin rally, and BTC behaves relatively stably.
  • Altcoin acceleration: The index exceeds 75.0 points, BTC dominance clearly falls, and weekly returns of ETH, SOL and XRP turn positive and higher than BTC. This would mean a broad improvement in altcoins and a potential entry into an altcoin season phase, with greater risk appetite and broader capital inflow.
  • Return of bitcoin season: The index falls below 25.0 points, BTC dominance rises above 60%, and BTC posts positive weekly returns while altcoins continue to decline. The market would turn defensive, capital would concentrate in BTC, and altcoins would lose relatively, which could mean a longer consolidation or a risk correction.

What to watch next week

In the coming weeks it is worth watching whether the index stays above 57.9 points and approaches 65.8 points, or rather retreats toward 45.0 points. Key will be BTC weekly returns versus the altcoin median and BTC dominance, especially its behavior around 58.0%. A signal of rotation would be ETH, SOL and XRP turning to positive weekly readings while BTC dominance falls, rising volume in smaller tokens, and inflows into altcoin funds instead of further outflows. At the same time it is worth observing funding, open positions and the Long/Short ratio on ETH, because the current dominance of long positions may fuel volatility. Macro events such as inflation readings, 10Y yields and dollar behavior will remain an important backdrop for liquidity across the whole market.

Risks to watch

  • Continued outflows from BTC and ETH ETFs, reportedly 549 million USD in the week, may keep pressure on large assets and delay rotation into altcoins.
  • The high ETH Long/Short ratio of 3.02 and the 3.1% rise in OI increase the risk of a sharp long squeeze if Ethereum fails to break above short term resistances.
  • A hot CPI reading and headline odds of a Fed rate hike raised to 44% may strengthen the dollar and yields, which usually creates tougher conditions for risky altcoins.
  • Reports of a ban on P2P trading and self custody wallets in Russia and of EU authority oversight of USDC may change local liquidity and market accessibility, especially for smaller tokens.

Frequently asked questions

What is altcoin season?

It is a phase in which altcoins as a group outperform Bitcoin. The CryptoPulsar AI index shows this through the percentage of altcoins in the sample that performed better than BTC over 90 days, with a threshold of 75 points for altcoin season.

How to interpret the 60.5 point reading?

It indicates a neutral state with a slight advantage for altcoins over the 90-day horizon, but too small to consider it an altcoin season. Some altcoins perform better than BTC, but the phenomenon is not broad.

Why is the index not rising when Bitway gained 2806.5%?

The index looks at the breadth of the sample, not at individual results. One very strong token can raise the median only to a limited extent if other altcoins perform worse.

Does BTC dominance of 60.2% rule out an altcoin season?

There is no single boundary, but high BTC dominance usually means capital is concentrated in Bitcoin. Altcoin seasons more often appear when BTC dominance is falling and inflows into altcoins are broader.

What do positive but low funding rates mean?

They mean that long positions pay shorts, but the cost of leverage is small. Low funding means no extreme euphoria, while a high long/short ratio on ETH can mean crowding on one side of the market.

Do ETF outflows always lead to declines?

Outflows show a reduction in institutional demand in a given week, but price also depends on other channels such as whale purchases, derivatives and exchange flows. That is why we analyze them together with other data.

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