Altcoin season in the macro view
What it shows
A market-regime indicator: ALTSEASON versus BTC Season. It compares Bitcoin's dynamics with the CD20 index (top-20 altcoins). When CD20 rises faster than BTC, capital rotates from Bitcoin into altcoins (altseason). When BTC leads, it's BTC Season. Alongside you see 24h changes for BTC and CD20.
How to read it
The key is comparing two numbers: CD20 24h versus BTC 24h. When CD20 clearly and persistently outperforms BTC, the indicator flips to ALTSEASON (historically the late bull-run phase when capital rotates from Bitcoin into altcoins). When BTC leads, it dominates and alts usually lag. Remember a single day isn't enough; look for a sustained edge. Practical takeaway: in BTC Season the risk in altcoins is historically elevated, and an altseason signal usually appears only after a strong Bitcoin move.
Parameters
- Regime Status
- An ALTSEASON or BTC Season label: who is currently driving the crypto market.
- Positive reading: ALTSEASON: altcoins outperform BTC, broad risk appetite within crypto.
- Neutral reading: BTC Season: Bitcoin leads, altcoins lag; capital concentrated in BTC.
- BTC 24h
- Bitcoin's 24h price change: the reference point for altcoin strength.
- Positive reading: Positive: the market leader in an uptrend, a healthy backdrop for all of crypto.
- Negative reading: Negative: BTC weakness usually drags altcoins down even harder.
- Neutral reading: Near zero: BTC consolidating, the market without a clear direction.
- CD20 24h
- The 24h change of the top-20 altcoin index. Compare it directly with BTC 24h.
- Positive reading: Rising faster than BTC: altcoins take the baton, a tilt toward altseason.
- Negative reading: Falling faster than BTC: altcoins weaken, capital hides in Bitcoin.
- Neutral reading: Close to BTC 24h: no clear rotation either way.
Example
BTC 24h +1.2%, CD20 24h +4.8%: altcoins strongly outperform Bitcoin, the indicator flashes ALTSEASON, which historically points to capital rotation into alts. Conversely: BTC +3%, CD20 +0.4%: BTC Season, in which altcoins lag.