Observations: probabilistic crypto forecasts with measured accuracy

QWave forecasts for 1, 7 and 30 day horizons: probability of a rise, median change and an 80% interval, with direction hit rate and interval coverage measured on settled forecasts.

Observations is where our QWave model publishes probabilistic forecasts. Instead of a single price target, each forecast states the probability that the price will be higher at the end of the horizon, the median expected change and an 80% interval (from the 10th to the 90th percentile).

Forecasts are made for 1, 7 and 30 day horizons and are settled when the horizon ends. The module shows how often the direction was right and how often the real price landed inside the interval, always with the number of settled forecasts, and keeps live results separate from historical tests.

A market regime view classifies each coin as trending up, trending down or range bound, with the confidence of that classification. It describes the current state and is not a forecast.

What the module shows

How to read the data

A summary of current QWave forecasts for the coins in the basket: P(up), median change and the P10-P90 band for the chosen horizon, with direction hit rate and interval coverage and their settled count below.

Horizon (1 day, 7 days, 30 days), P(up), Median (P50), 80% forecast interval (P10-P90), Direction hit rate (N), 80% interval coverage (N), Historical test or live results

The QWave forecast for this coin: 10,000 simulated price paths built from hourly history and similar market setups. The card shows P(up), the median, the 80% interval, the band fan on the chart and how the model has done for this coin so far.

Horizon (1 day, 7 days, 30 days), P(up), Median (P50), 80% forecast interval (P10-P90), Fan chart, Direction hit rate (N), 80% interval coverage (N), Historical test or live results, Chance of a 10% move, Volatility, Forecast reliability, Settlement

The character of the market for the selected coin, reduced to one of three states: uptrend, downtrend or consolidation (range-bound). Plus the confidence of that classification, how long the state has lasted, six state metrics and a history strip showing when the regime flipped. This DESCRIBES what the market is doing, it does not forecast what it will do.

Regime (market state), Where the colour comes from, How the label is decided, Classification confidence, Trend strength, Momentum, Volatility, Range compression, Move exhaustion, Move efficiency, Regime history

Algorithmic directional forecasts (bullish/bearish/neutral) for top coins over the chosen horizon (24h/7d/30d), with a percentage probability. Based on RSI, momentum and volatility.

Forecast direction, Probability, Time horizon

Other modules