Market regime
What it shows
The character of the market for the selected coin, reduced to one of three states: uptrend, downtrend or consolidation (range-bound). Plus the confidence of that classification, how long the state has lasted, six state metrics and a history strip showing when the regime flipped. This DESCRIBES what the market is doing, it does not forecast what it will do.
How to read it
Start with the label and the confidence: they say what state the market is in and how unambiguous the reading is. The duration shows whether the state is fresh or long-running. The state metrics explain why that label was assigned (e.g. high compression with low trend strength is the classic picture of consolidation). The history strip is for comparison: does this market flip states often, or hold one for weeks? The widget does not tell you what to do, as it frames the background for everything else you read.
Parameters
- Regime (market state)
- Uptrend = price consistently sits above its moving averages and travels one way. Downtrend = the same, downwards. Consolidation = movement is choppy and stays inside a range, neither side dominates.
- Neutral reading: Consolidation is a real state, not "no data", because markets spend most of their time in it.
- Where the colour comes from
- The colour comes ONLY from the state label and is identical for every coin: green = uptrend, yellow = consolidation, red = downtrend. The same three colours mean the same thing in the history strip and in the list of changes.
- Neutral reading: The shade does not change with the strength of the move or with confidence. You will see the same yellow at confidence 30 and at 90. How pronounced the state is comes from the confidence number and the metrics, never from the colour.
- How the label is decided
- We compute it from our own daily price series (at least 60 points, otherwise we show no data rather than guess). We call a trend only when trend strength is at least 45 AND move efficiency is at least 30 at the same time. The direction comes from whether the 20-period average sits above or below the 50-period one.
- Neutral reading: Everything else is consolidation, which is why yellow shows up most often: failing just one of the two conditions is enough. Confidence is computed differently in a trend (strength + efficiency + momentum, reduced by how stretched the move is) than in consolidation (lack of trend + range compression + low efficiency).
- Classification confidence
- 0–100. It says how unanimously the metrics point at the same state. High = every measure agrees; low = a mixed picture and the regime may be flipping right now.
- Positive reading: 70 and above: a clear state, the metrics do not contradict each other.
- Negative reading: Below 40: an ambiguous picture, treat the label with care.
- Trend strength
- 0–100. How consistently price lines up against its own short and long moving averages, and how long it holds one direction. High = orderly movement, low = tangled.
- Momentum
- 0–100. The pace of price change (from RSI and the window's percentage move) mapped onto a scale from oversold to overbought. 50 is neutral.
- Volatility
- A 0–100 percentile: where today's volatility sits against this coin's own history. 90 means the market is moving more than on 90% of days in the window.
- Neutral reading: High volatility is neither good nor bad in itself. It only describes the size of the moves.
- Range compression
- 0–100. How tight the recent price range is versus the typical one. High compression describes a squeezed market; historically such periods ended in a larger move, but the direction cannot be read from it.
- Move exhaustion
- 0–100. How far price has stretched from its average and how long the unbroken one-way streak is. A high value describes a stretched move, which means that a reversal is not necessarily due.
- Move efficiency
- 0–100 (Kaufman's ratio). How much of the total distance price travelled turned into net movement from A to B. High = a straight, directional move; low = the market walks in circles.
- Regime history
- The strip and the list show when the market state changed. It builds from our hourly snapshots; the longer we collect, the fuller the picture. Pulse Pro shows the last 14 entries, Pulse Alpha 60.
Example
Regime: consolidation, confidence 78, in place 6 days. Trend strength 22, momentum 51, volatility 18 (percentile), compression 84, exhaustion 12, efficiency 19. Read it as: the market walks a narrow range, neither side dominates, and moves largely cancel out. The history strip shows the previous uptrend ended a week ago, which is a description of state, not a breakout call.