Average path of the week
What it shows
The averaged week path: a line accumulating from Monday, where each point is the sum of the mean daily changes up to and including that day. The shaded band around the line is the 95% confidence interval. The model uses the same per-weekday means as the bar chart: the two always agree.
How to read it
Read the shape: where the line climbs, positive days historically accumulated; flat segments are days without a clear tendency. A wide band = high uncertainty. This is an averaged picture of the past, not a plan for next week.
Parameters
- Cumulative (%)
- The sum of mean daily changes since the start of the week. Shows where in the week the move historically accumulated.
- Whiskers / 95% CI
- Whiskers are the 95% confidence interval of the mean: a realistic range for the true value. A narrow interval = a more confident reading.
- Positive reading: The whole interval on one side of zero: a clear tendency across the data window.
- Negative reading: Whiskers crossing zero: the interval contains 0, so it may just as well be noise.
- n (sample size)
- How many historical days back the group. A small n (the “low sample” badge) = a result too noisy to take seriously.
- FDR-significant
- The green badge: the result passed the multiple-comparison correction (Benjamini–Hochberg). Without it, with ~30 tests per profile, a few “significant” results are pure chance.
Example
The line climbs Monday to Wednesday to +0.6%, then flattens into Friday; in this window positive days historically clustered in the first half of the week. If the band contains zero along its whole length, the entire shape may be noise.