Halving (Bitcoin)
What it shows
Halving is the cyclical (roughly every 4 years) halving of Bitcoin's miner reward. It sets the rhythm of supply and has historically shaped the entire market-cycle structure.
How to read it
Halving is a structural frame, not a precise clock: every cycle differed in timing and magnitude. Use it as long-term context, combined with MVRV and NUPL, not as a date pinpointing a top.
Parameters
- Phase relative to halving
- The position in the halving cycle helps judge which structural phase the market is in.
- Positive reading: The first months after a halving: historically the start of the cycle's growth phase.
- Negative reading: The late post-halving phase (over a year later): historically a maturing bull and higher risk.
- Neutral reading: Mid-cycle: an in-between phase with no clear supply-structure pressure.
Example
The chart shows we are ~14 months after the 2024 halving (3.125 BTC reward). Historically 12–18 months post-halving was the cycle's strongest expansion phase. Just before a halving new-coin supply is still high; far past it the cycle historically matured.