Macro Barometer (BTC, Gold, S&P500)
What it shows
A dashboard of eight key macro assets seen through a crypto investor's eyes: Bitcoin, gold, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, the CD20 index (top-20 crypto), the Dollar Index DXY, the fear gauge VIX, and the US 10-year Treasury yield. For each you see price, 24h change, BTC correlation and a 7d sparkline. A fast read on whether the backdrop favors risk (risk-on) or flees from it (risk-off).
How to read it
Read the barometer as a tug-of-war between risk-on and risk-off. Rising S&P, Nasdaq and CD20 together with falling DXY, VIX and US10Y is the classic risk-on setup that favors crypto. The reverse, a rising dollar, a spiking VIX, pricier bonds and a flight into gold, is risk-off and elevated risk for crypto. Also watch each asset's BTC correlation: a strong correlation means that market's move actually feeds through to crypto. Practical takeaway: when most readings flash risk-off, treat the backdrop as elevated risk and weigh exposure more cautiously.
Parameters
- Two different windows: 24h and 7 days
- Each row mixes two periods. The number next to the price is the change over the last 24 hours, while the % badge on the right is the 7-day correlation with BTC: they are not comparable.
- Neutral reading: For gold, indices, VIX and bonds the 24h change is measured from the last session close, because those markets do not trade around the clock. Macro prices come from a periodic sync, so they can be tens of minutes older than the price on a coin page: the age of the reading is shown under the widget.
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- The benchmark for the whole crypto market: BTC's direction usually sets the tone for altcoins.
- Positive reading: Rising on clear volume: the market leader is strong, supporting broader risk appetite.
- Negative reading: Falling, it drags the whole market with it, so pressure on altcoins builds.
- Neutral reading: Consolidating in a tight range, as the market waits for a catalyst.
- Gold (XAU)
- The classic safe-haven asset. Its moves reveal whether capital is seeking safety or risk.
- Positive reading: Stable or weakening: risk appetite returns, historically a tailwind for crypto (risk-on).
- Negative reading: Spiking higher, which means safe-haven demand, a risk-off climate and a historical headwind for crypto.
- Neutral reading: Trading in a range: no clear risk-on/risk-off signal.
- S&P 500 (SPX)
- A barometer of the US economy and broad risk appetite, strongly correlated with BTC since 2020.
- Positive reading: Rising, which means equity optimism and historically a positive tailwind for crypto.
- Negative reading: Falling sharply, as equity risk-off often spills over into crypto sell-offs.
- Neutral reading: Flat: a neutral backdrop for risk assets.
- Nasdaq (NDX)
- The technology index. BTC and ETH are often treated as 'tech assets', hence the strong correlation.
- Positive reading: Rising: a tech rally pulls crypto with it (risk-on in growth assets).
- Negative reading: Falling: a tech sell-off is historically a headwind for BTC and ETH.
- Neutral reading: Directionless: no clear impulse from the tech sector.
- CD20 Index
- An index of the 20 largest cryptocurrencies. Against BTC it shows whether capital rotates into altcoins.
- Positive reading: Outperforming BTC, which means broad altcoin strength, a historical hint of an altseason tendency.
- Negative reading: Falling faster than BTC: altcoins are bleeding, risk-off within crypto.
- Neutral reading: Tracking BTC: no clear rotation between Bitcoin and alts.
- Dollar Index (DXY)
- The dollar's strength against a basket of currencies. One of the strongest macro drivers for crypto, usually inversely correlated with BTC.
- Positive reading: Falling: a weaker dollar loosens financial conditions, a historical tailwind for crypto (risk-on).
- Negative reading: Rising: a stronger dollar pulls capital out of risk assets, a headwind for crypto (risk-off).
- Neutral reading: Range-bound: a neutral influence on risk assets.
- Fear Index (VIX)
- Expected volatility on US equity markets, a thermometer of mood: calm versus panic.
- Positive reading: Low (<15): calm and risk appetite, historically favorable for crypto.
- Negative reading: High (>25) or spiking: panic and risk-off, often preceding crypto sell-offs.
- Neutral reading: Moderate (15–25): the market without extreme emotion.
- US 10Y Yield (US10Y)
- The cost of 'safe' capital and a key gauge of Fed policy. It shapes the appeal of risk assets.
- Positive reading: Falling: looser financial conditions, a historical tailwind for BTC and tech stocks.
- Negative reading: Rising: bonds become more attractive than risk, capital flows out of crypto.
- Neutral reading: Stable: a neutral backdrop for risk assets.
Example
DXY -0.8%, VIX falling to 13, S&P and Nasdaq green, CD20 outpacing BTC. Almost every reading is risk-on, a backdrop historically favorable for crypto. Warning sign: DXY and US10Y rising, VIX spiking to 28, gold +2%. This is a broad risk-off in which crypto is usually under pressure.