CryptoPulsar AI Weekly Report: ETFs bleed, derivatives play both sides
· CryptoPulsar AI
Bitcoin ends the week near the lower band, Ethereum posts the largest weekly decline among major assets, and in the background ETFs lose 1,22bn USD. We check what links prices, derivatives, exchanges and sentiment.
Key points
- BTC: 82 579,00 USD, week -3,2%, from ATH -34,5%; ETH: 2 490,92 USD, week -7,1%, from ATH -49,6%.
- Spot ETFs on BTC and ETH saw outflows of 1,22bn USD in a single week; XRP ETF as an exception with an inflow of 8,17m USD.
- Fear & Greed rose from 61 to 69 points (Greed), despite declines and liquidations of long positions.
- SOL -9,8%, XRP -9,0%, UNI -19,2%; STRK +78,5% over 7 days, but -19,7% over 24h.
- OI BTC 7,78bn USD (+0,4% in 24h), OI ETH 5,74bn USD (-2,0%); L/S ETH 2,82.
Numbers of the week
- BTC: 82579.0 USD, 7d -3.2%, 30d +7.6%
- ETH: 2490.92 USD, 7d -7.1%, 30d -0.1%
- SOL: 106.91 USD, 7d -9.8%, 30d +7.1%
- BNB: 741.53 USD, 7d -5.2%, 30d +2.8%
- XRP: 1.35 USD, 7d -9.0%, 30d +0.3%
Weekly Summary
The market ends the week with supply prevailing. Bitcoin costs 82 579,00 USD, i.e. 3,2% less than seven days earlier, but over a 30-day horizon it remains 7,6% above the line. Ethereum falls 7,1% to 2 490,92 USD and nearly returns to its level from a month ago, because the 30d change is just -0,1%. Solana loses 9,8%, XRP 9,0%, and BNB 5,2%. The weekly wave of declines was not uniform: some assets lost due to leverage, others due to outflows from ETFs, and still others due to capital rotation.
According to headlines, the market consolidated ahead of the FOMC meeting, and on October 7 long positions worth 600 million USD were liquidated. Later the media reported on sharp liquidations, and on October 9 the total liquidation value reportedly exceeded 1 billion USD. At the same time, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs had a weekly outflow of 1,22 billion USD. This combination of outflows and forced position closing explains why prices found themselves closer to the lower limits of their ranges.
Total market capitalization is 2 880,44 billion USD, and 24h volume is 129,86 billion USD. BTC dominance in weekly data is 59,6%, but in the current reading it shows 57,6%, which may be due to a different measurement moment or methodology.
Bitcoin and Ethereum
BTC closes the reading at 82 579,00 USD, with a 24h change of -1,0% and volume of 26,02 billion USD. The price is at 14,9% of the width of the 24-hour range from 82 291,00 to 84 231,00 USD, i.e. close to the lower boundary. In the 7d range, stretched from 80 487,00 to 86 610,00 USD, the price still has room above the minimum, but the weekly direction is downward. BTC is 34,5% away from its ATH.
Ethereum looks weaker: 2 490,92 USD, 24h -1,4%, 7d -7,1%, 30d -0,1%. The 24h range is 2 485,43 to 2 574,57 USD, and the price is only 6,2% above the lower end. The 7-day range from 2 409,36 to 2 722,62 USD shows that ETH has already tested lower levels but failed to return above the psychological 2 600 USD. ETH market capitalization is 304,17 billion USD.
On the on-chain market, 16 whale transactions were seen in 24h, with a volume of 646,71 million USD, and exchange inflows of 109,93 million USD. The headline about 4 393 ETH from wallets associated with the Ethereum Foundation being moved to Kraken fits the picture of increased attention to ETH supply, although no conclusions can be drawn from it about motives.
Altcoins: Leaders and Laggards
Among the major altcoins, the largest weekly declines were recorded by SOL (-9,8%), XRP (-9,0%) and BNB (-5,2%). In the broader ranking, the weakest were UNI (-19,2%), PUMP (-18,8%), VVV (-17,1%), MNT (-14,4%) and BCH (-13,1%). This shows that the correction hit DeFi tokens, meme tokens and older projects hard.
On the other hand, the week brought clear winners: STRK +78,5%, BTW +39,8%, BDX +19,1%, STX +18,2% and AERO +6,4%. In the case of STRK, there is huge volatility, as the token loses 19,7% in 24h, which may indicate profit-taking after an earlier rally. Among 24h gainers, HOODINU +82,4%, RSR +32,7% and the tokenized iShares Core S&P 500 ETF IVVON +26,5% stand out. The latter is a reminder that tokenization of traditional instruments can attract capital even when major cryptocurrencies are falling.
It is worth comparing SOL, which loses 9,8% in 7 days but gains 7,1% in 30 days, and XRP, which after a weekly decline of 9,0% remains 0,3% above the line over 30 days. Rotation within altcoins was therefore selective rather than completely panic-driven.
Sentiment and Derivatives
The Fear & Greed Index stands at 69 points, which means Greed, and rose by 8 points during the day from 61. This is an interesting signal: BTC and ETH prices are falling, but retail sentiment has not entered the fear zone. The BTC cycle indicator is 31,7 out of 100, an accumulation phase, which suggests that from a cycle perspective the market does not resemble a hot bull market, but rather a cooler period of building positions.
Derivatives data show a divergence between BTC and ETH. BTC Open Interest is 7,78 billion USD and grows by 0,4% in 24h, with a long/short ratio of 1,47 (long 59,5%, short 40,5%). This is relatively balanced positioning. ETH has OI of 5,74 billion USD, but a decline of 2,0%, and a very high L/S of 2,82 (long 73,8%, short 26,2%). This means that a large part of open positions on ETH was positioned for gains, and when the price declined there were liquidations and deleveraging.
Funding rates are low: 0,0081% for BTC and 0,0025% for ETH. Therefore, there is no aggressive pressure from short positions, but there is also a lack of fuel in the form of high funding for new longs. Headlines about long position liquidations on the largest scale since early June and about ETH whales being liquidated confirm that some of the declines were technical rather than fundamental in nature.
The rest of the analysis, conclusions and scenarios are in Pulse Pro, the comparison with the previous report in Pulse Alpha.
Frequently asked questions
Why did Ethereum fall more than Bitcoin this week?
Ethereum had larger ETF outflows and a very high long/short ratio of 2,82, meaning many traders were positioned for a rise. When the price fell, these positions were closed, reinforcing the move. In addition, OI ETH fell by 2,0%, meaning leverage was removed faster than on BTC.
What does the rise in Fear & Greed to 69 mean when prices are falling?
The index measures sentiment, not the price direction itself. The rise from 61 to 69 points suggests that retail investors still see the market in a greed phase, even as BTC and ETH correct. This shows that sentiment has not yet shifted into fear.
What are ETF outflows and why do they matter?
ETFs give institutions easy access to cryptocurrencies. A net outflow means more money is leaving than entering, which can increase supply in the spot market. During the week, spot BTC and ETH ETFs lost 1,22bn USD.
Why is the BTC correlation with Nasdaq 100 important?
In the data, the 30-day BTC correlation with NDX is 0,70, meaning Bitcoin moved similarly to technology stocks. This helps understand that crypto prices are also influenced by sentiment on equity markets, especially declines in the NDX.
What does the accumulation phase mean at a BTC cycle indicator of 31,7/100?
The cycle indicator shows the phase the market may be in. The low value of 31,7 suggests an accumulation phase, in which long-term investors are slowly building positions after a correction, rather than a hot bull phase.
What is L/S ratio and why does 2,82 on ETH attract attention?
The long/short ratio compares the number of long positions to short positions. A value of 2,82 on ETH means that for one short position there were almost three long positions. Such a setup can be fragile, because when the price falls many long positions can be liquidated at once.