CryptoPulsar Report: BTC and ETH correction with rising VIX crypto analysis ai
· CryptoPulsar AI
The week brought further declines in major assets with simultaneous increase in volatility on exchanges. BTC dominance remained close to 60 percent, and capital inflow to whales contrasted with outflows from ETFs. The report combines data from derivatives, macro and on-chain to show dependencies invisible in daily news.
Key points
- BTC: 80232 USD (-2,9 proc. 7d)
- ETH: 2326,59 USD (-4,5 proc. 7d)
- Dominacja BTC: 60,13 proc.
- VIX: 19,71 (+9,0 proc. 7d)
- XAUUSD: 4013,90 USD (-3,8 proc. 7d)
Numbers of the week
- BTC: 80232.0 USD, 7d -2.9%, 30d -4.4%
- ETH: 2326.59 USD, 7d -4.5%, 30d -13.2%
- SOL: 101.29 USD, 7d -3.9%, 30d -15.5%
- BNB: 739.72 USD, 7d +1.8%, 30d -4.1%
- XRP: 1.29 USD, 7d -1.9%, 30d -16.4%
Stocks, dollar and gold (7 days)
- S&P 500: 7623.68, 7d -1.0%
- Nasdaq 100: 28957.527, 7d -2.0%
- CBOE Volatility Index: 19.71, 7d +9.0%
- US Dollar Index: 101.878, 7d +0.0%
- US 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.988, 7d -2.2%
- Gold (XAU/USD): 4013.8999, 7d -3.8%
- Crude Oil (WTI): 101.05, 7d +3.8%
Weekly summary
Bitcoin lost 2.9 percent over the week and closed the period at 80232 USD. Ethereum weakened more sharply by 4.5 percent, reaching 2326.59 USD. BTC dominance remained high at 60.13 percent, indicating limited capital rotation within the market.
Total market capitalization stood at 2.78 trillion USD with daily volume of 88.9 billion USD. The BTC cycle indicator fell to 30.7/100 and maintained the accumulation phase. Fear & Greed Index dropped to 50 points from 54 points the day before.
Bitcoin and Ethereum
BTC moved in the 7d range between 79326 and 84808 USD, closing the week closer to the lower bound. BTC open interest stood at 7.52 billion USD with a 0.5 percent increase in 24h and funding rate 0.0091 percent. Long/Short ratio on Binance reached 2.21.
ETH recorded a decline in open interest to 5.43 billion USD with a 1.4 percent increase in 24h. ETH funding rate was 0.0044 percent, and Long/Short ratio 3.37. ETH ETF outflows persisted, while BTC whales showed inflows of 1.18 billion USD in 24h transactions.
Altcoins: leaders and laggards
MemeCore gained 35.9 percent in the week, Ethena 9.3 percent, and Pepe 7.5 percent. SOL lost 3.9 percent to the level of 101.29 USD, and XRP 1.9 percent to 1.29 USD. BNB stood out with a 1.8 percent gain to 739.72 USD.
The largest declines were recorded by Bitway (-29.5 percent), Morpho (-18.7 percent) and Arbitrum (-13.7 percent). Whale volume across the entire market amounted to 1.18 billion USD with 15 transactions in 24h.
Sentiment and derivatives
Funding rates remained positive but low: 0.0091 percent for BTC and 0.0044 percent for ETH. Long/Short ratio ETH at 3.37 indicates a persistent dominance of long positions despite the price decline. Fear & Greed fell by 4 points over the day to neutral level.
The BTC cycle indicator at 30.7/100 suggests an accumulation phase, while retail sentiment cooled. Inflows to exchanges amounted to 250 million USD, and outflows 648 million USD in 24h.
Markets, dollar and gold
S&P 500 fell by 1.0 percent during the week to 7623.68 points with a correlation to BTC at 0.71. Nasdaq 100 lost 2.0 percent to 28957.53 points with a correlation of 0.69. VIX rose by 9.0 percent to 19.71 points with a correlation of -0.54.
DXY remained almost unchanged at 101.88 with a correlation to BTC close to zero. The 10Y US yield decreased by 0.15 pp to 4.99 percent. Gold fell by 3.8 percent to 4013.90 USD with a correlation of 0.52.
Economy and central banks
According to reports, investors withdrew funds from BTC and ETH ETFs, coinciding with pressure on risk assets. The 9 percent rise in VIX during the week indicates increased risk aversion in traditional markets.
ETH ETF outflow data reached 169770 ETH on a monthly scale. Stabilization of DXY and the decline in 10Y yields did not lead to a clear BTC rebound, suggesting dominance of internal crypto market factors.
Geopolitics and regulations
According to reports, the OCC finalized GENIUS Act rules on stablecoin issuers and custody. The Blockchain Association called for clarification of DeFi rules and foreign issuers.
SEC approved listing of 3x ETFs on BTC and ETH. Ripple urged the SEC to end regulatory uncertainty. These events typically affect perceptions of legal clarity, which may influence institutional inflows over the longer term.
Conclusions
- BTC decline of 2.9 pct with VIX up 9 pct and 0.71 correlation with SPX shows persistent dependence on risk-off sentiment on stock exchanges.
- BTC dominance at 60.13 pct with simultaneous outflows from ETH ETFs and whale inflows indicates selective capital rotation within crypto.
- Long/Short ETH at 3.37 with price decline and ETF outflows suggests that long positions remain vulnerable to further liquidations.
- Gold decline of 3.8 pct and DXY stabilization with low correlations with BTC mean that monetary factors were not the main driver this week.
- Cycle indicator 30.7/100 in accumulation phase with neutral Fear & Greed 50 pts shows divergence between on-chain indicators and retail sentiment.
Scenarios
- Deepening of risk-off correction: BTC sustainably below 79326 USD, VIX above 20 pts and further outflows from BTC/ETH ETFs Increase in pressure on risk assets through the stock market channel, with risk of further liquidations at high Long/Short ETH.
- Sideways accumulation in 7d band: BTC between 79326 and 84808 USD, stable open interest and funding below 0.01 pct. Gradual cooling of leverage and building bases for movement without a strong directional signal.
- Return of demand above upper band: BTC above 84808 USD with rising open interest and Long/Short ETH drop below 3.0 New long positions return without excessive overheating with weakening correlation with VIX.
What to watch next week
In the next week it is worth watching the BTC band 79326-84808 USD, open interest BTC 7.52 bln USD and ETH 5.43 bln USD as well as Long/Short ETH 3.37. Key will be VIX readings, 10Y yields and further ETF flow data.
Risks to watch
- Maintaining Long/Short ETH above 3.3 with further outflows from ETFs
- VIX rise above 20 pts with SPX decline
- Continuation of outflows from BTC and ETH ETFs above 500 mln USD weekly
- BTC cycle indicator drop below 30 with neutral Fear & Greed
The comparison with the previous report is in Pulse Alpha.
Frequently asked questions
Why is BTC dominance rising despite the price drop?
High dominance during altcoin declines means that capital is rotating towards the largest asset instead of exiting the market. This phenomenon often appears in correction phases.
What does high Long/Short ETH mean during a price drop?
A high ratio of long to short positions during a decline suggests that leverage on the bull side remains large and may be prone to liquidations under further pressure.
Why is BTC correlation with VIX negative?
Negative correlation means that rising volatility on traditional exchanges often coincides with BTC declines, indicating a common risk-off factor.
How do ETF outflows affect the market?
ETF outflows mean reduced exposure by passive investors, which can increase supply pressure even amid whale accumulation.
What does the cycle indicator at 30,7/100 show?
A value below 50 in the accumulation phase suggests the market is in a bottom-building period, though it does not guarantee the direction of the next move.
Why do funding rates remain positive?
Positive funding means long positions pay shorts, indicating a prevailing bullish sentiment in derivatives despite spot declines.